WS B2. Managing and reducing uncertainty in water quality modeling design: a framework and methods
Lincoln, Tuesday, 13:00
Model design choices (here encompassing many aspects including formulation, system boundaries, scales, scenarios, objectives, quantitative and qualitative methods of uncertainty assessment) have far-reaching effects on the whole modelling process – from formulation to construction, participation and monitoring. These choices naturally affect a model’s input data requirements, assumptions made, simulated outcomes and their uncertainty. Design choices and their transparency also influence the ability for participatory partners and stakeholders to develop trust in a model’s outputs and therefore the success of the model to support policy development or decision making. Thus, participatory modelling should comprise “cradle to grave” decisions (design to practice) and their justification.
This workshop accompanies the iEMSs 2024 presentation sessions on water quality modeling. It will attempt to develop a framework and outline an associated set of methods that will assist the modeling community to assess and communicate the effects of design choices on model output quantities of interest, with a focus on uncertainty management and assessment, and decision support tools for policy and its implementation. The framework should be generically applicable regardless of model style (e.g., modelling for different spatial and temporal resolution) and purpose (e.g., for forecasting, reporting and planning). But in the workshop, we will focus on models addressing various sources (urban, industrial, agricultural, point and diffuse/distributed) causing social, economic and environmental consequences of poor water quality.
The outcome of this workshop is expected to be a Position Paper on the current and future designs of water quality modeling for managing uncertainty. For those wishing to contribute to the workshop it is proposed that their primary ideas be submitted as an abstract and presented as a talk in the accompanying water quality sessions so as to make more efficient use of time in the workshop. The organizers will lead a discussion structured around the topic and invite audience participation on key subtopics. There will be an overview talk on the topic in the sessions on water quality.